April 2020 Market Update: Two Scenarios For Our Local Real Estate

No one knows for sure what the supply and demand situation will be for the rest of the year. For the sake of this article, let’s say you want to move into your next home or be out of your current home in time for the start of school in September.

For sellers: One theory notes inventory is far below normal for this time of year. And while activity is slow it certainly hasn’t stopped. There are trade-up buyers who have already contracted to sell their starter homes, buyers seeking to protect their rate locks, buyers anxious to move out of the city. You may benefit from the scarce inventory. The flip side, if you try now and don’t sell, your home won’t be the latest thing when the likely avalanche of inventory comes out after the smoke clears.

Or you can wait for greater circulation of buyers, possible regrowth of in-person showings and modified open houses. Buyers will have more confidence after the pandemic is controlled and there is some clarity about the ensuing economic reality. Your home will be in the new crop. The flip side here—the delayed spring inventory may outpace the buyers, leading to price shrinkage.

For Buyers: You might shop now, while you know rates are historically low, and you reasonably assume sellers with their homes on the market today are motivated. Wouldn’t they wait for June or July if selling sooner were not important? The following study will show homes are selling as you read this. On the flip side, there is a chance the same or similar homes will trade for a bit less in the next few months.

Or you can wait and try to “buy the dip.” There may be a wider selection of homes for sale in June or July. If the market tilts to over supplied, there may be better buys later. But what if there is a Black Friday effect? Or if interest rate fluctuations cancel out the price improvements?

The following data encompasses all the towns we track: Berkeley Heights, Chatham, Clark, Cranford, Fanwood, Garwood, Millburn, Mountainside, New Providence, Scotch Plains, Short Hills, Summit, Warren, Watchung, Westfield.

As always, we also show you the previous month’s activity in your own town.